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café Annalisa  the meeting place for discussions about how Annalisa could help decide... choose... judge... select...    the best...   or the most

 

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Biological Clock PDF Print E-mail
Ralph Keeney and Dinah Vernik of Duke University have produced an elegant model of the 'biological clock' decision. Implemented in Excel and publicly available, the model allows a woman to work out the optimal timing of their first birth (assuming other necessary conditions are met!) by expressing their beliefs and preferences in relation to their entire Professional Life, Social Life and Family Life - where Social Life is defined to exclude that inside the family. If a woman is able to work her way through the model and make the many (93) assessments necessary they will identify the first birth timing that takes into account all her beliefs and preferences - and those of her partner if the task is tackled jointly. If this is too demanding we offer a more simplified model of the biological clock in Annalisa which requires many fewer assessments but hopefully still offers important insights. This 'starter' Annalisa assumes the woman is 20 and is contemplating her 3 lives up to the age of 80. These lives are divided at 50 to give two thirty-year periods. (As in any Annalisa these assumptions could be easily modified to fit any particular individual circumstances.)
  • Professional Life to 50
  • Social Life to 50
  • Family Life to 50
  • Professional Life 50 to 80
  • Social Life 50 to 80
  • Family Life 50 to 80
First birth/s
  • Aged 20-24 years
  • Aged 25-29 years
  • Aged 30-34 years
  • Aged 35-39 years
  • Aged 40-45 years
  • No child
  • Personal assessments of the total impact of the arrival of a child (or two) in each five year period on each facet of life, treating the three decades each side of 50 separately
    The three slides indicate alternative weightings. Slide 1 weights each of six facet-period combinations equally. Slide two retains the equal weightings of the two time periods but allows different weights for each life facet within each. Slide 3 gives higher weight to the period up to 50 than after it.
    As implied by Ratings and Weightings.
    Ralph L Keeney and Dinah Vernik 'Analysis of the Biological Clock Decision' Decision Analysis 4 (3) 2007,pp 114-135. The model and guide to its use are available here 
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